Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 123.893430 143.015520 164.864481 191.839572 224.471366 262.953282 312.188479
2025-11-30 103.615686 128.820860 160.442832 203.656743 262.168516 340.119712 454.406724
2025-12-07 88.088409 115.339950 151.874928 205.664912 285.009782 401.411277 592.443739
2025-12-14 78.130096 106.608079 146.885346 209.953452 310.012950 469.767744 760.403002
2025-12-21 69.507003 98.025825 140.144968 209.540894 326.635487 527.868379 929.590498
2025-12-28 65.807631 95.884267 142.262564 222.730760 367.477201 636.542450 1231.716265
2026-01-04 62.053017 93.012210 142.592465 232.680887 404.468794 748.160617 1588.085553
2026-01-11 58.448555 89.833787 141.821953 240.323162 438.562140 863.789304 2009.806294
2026-01-18 54.709668 85.936631 139.211501 243.967055 465.310798 971.658780 2470.121723
2026-01-25 50.951076 81.557814 135.137385 244.007524 484.332853 1067.564225 2953.671972
2026-02-01 46.906919 76.254258 128.731012 238.314739 489.318386 1130.235426 3372.479656
2026-02-08 43.370425 71.507640 122.809759 232.687388 493.236095 1191.590254 3830.676967
2026-02-15 40.111325 67.065395 117.171673 227.251236 497.633134 1259.606541 4385.198034
2026-02-22 39.452203 67.349020 120.732150 242.608601 558.603735 1522.081679 6039.955501
2026-03-01 37.523424 65.042144 118.841431 245.252875 586.768070 1693.933138 7482.046308
2026-03-08 36.026898 63.420077 118.152485 250.614274 624.151174 1916.902365 9541.467413
2026-03-15 34.152500 60.883486 115.255372 250.106899 644.324864 2087.283747 11564.780977
2026-03-22 33.796584 61.342324 118.824774 266.541381 721.865435 2535.378356 16657.166986
2026-03-29 33.109956 61.055772 120.711785 278.972720 790.971219 2998.488537 23362.693173
2026-04-05 32.244498 60.314262 121.478909 288.539892 853.875331 3483.126630 32278.406008
2026-04-12 31.106925 58.895440 120.517973 293.107362 900.566846 3923.992456 42885.829704
2026-04-19 29.778933 56.958580 118.130019 293.158110 930.447441 4297.781654 54775.435509
2026-04-26 28.140909 54.224222 113.563232 286.024022 929.896127 4488.520145 64575.835463